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UN0701 - Engineering Risk and Reliability (2007 version)
Home url: www.unene.ca
 

This is the 2007 archive version of UN0701. The 2005 version of this course is also maintained for archival and reference purposes. The course is not currently in session.

The next planned offering is June 2009. The instructor's website should be used for upcoming and in-session information on the course. The current information there is the same as the 2007 version.

Be sure to read about the Academic Integrity Policy.

[Announcements] [Course Description] [Course Schedule] [Course Notes] [Problem Sets] [Additional Information] [References]

Announcements

17.06.2007

 Posted the Excel spreadsheet for life cycle management and the Powerpoint Presentation for Reliability Block Diagrams (see additional information below).

14.06.2007

 Posted the Final Exam and solutions for Problem Set 1 and 2.

12.06.2007

 The last session for Summer 2007 will be held on June 16 (Saturday) at UOIT, room F209 (Gordon Willey Building). The start time for the day is 8:30 am. See the schedule below.

12.06.2007

 Posted course notes for Modules 5 and 6.  Also posted References, and  updated the Table of Contents.

28.05.2007

 Posted Problem Set 2 and Excel spreadsheets from Module 3 and 4 in-class tutorials (see additional information below).

22.05.2007

 The second session for Summer 2007 will be held on May 26/27 (Sat/Sun) at UOIT, room D209 (Gordon Willey Building). The start time for the first day is 9:00 am. See the schedule below.

22.05.2007

 Posted course notes for Modules 3 and 4.

14.05.2007

 Posted Problem Set 1 and Excel spreadsheets from Module 1 and 2 in-class tutorials (see additional information below).

08.05.2007

Please download the following MS-Excel datafile: data.xls (29 Kb) to your laptop (or memory stick etc.). It will be used in some of the in-class exercises. (copies of the file will also be available in class)

08.05.2007

The first session for Summer 2007 will be held on May 12/13 (Sat/Sun) at UOIT, room UA2220. The start time for the first day is 9:00 am.
See the schedule below.

NOTE: Please print the course notes prior to the first session.  Also, bring a laptop (with MS-Excel) to be used for the in-class exercises.

Directions to UOIT: UOIT is located at 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, Ontario. See UOIT map and driving directions.

Course Description

This course presents a broad treatment of the subject of engineering decision, risk, and reliability. Emphasis is on

  • the modelling of engineering problems and evaluation of systems performance under conditions of uncertainty;
  • risk-based approach to life-cycle management of engineering systems;
  • systematic development of design criteria, explicitly taking into account the significance of uncertainty; and
  • logical framework for risk assessment and risk-benefit tradeoffs in decision making.
The necessary mathematical concepts are developed in the context of engineering problems. The main topics of discussion are: probability theory, statistical data analysis, component and system reliability concepts, time-dependent reliability analysis, computational methods, life-cycle optimization models and risk management in public policy.

Prerequisite: Registration in the UNENE Joint M. Eng. Program
Lecturer: Dr. Mahesh Pandey, University of Waterloo (contact information)

Course Schedule

The course is divided into six separate modules delivered over three weekends:
Preliminary course schedule (pdf 24kb)

  • Module 1: Fundamentals of Probability, May 12, 2007 (Saturday)
  • Module 2: Statistical Analysis, May 13, 2007 (Sunday)
  • Module 3: Functions of Random Variables, May 26, 2007 (Saturday)
  • Module 4: Reliability Analysis, May 27, 2007 (Sunday)
  • Module 5: System Reliability Analysis, June 16, 2007 (Saturday)
  • Module 6: Risk and Life Cycle Management, June 17, 2007 (Sunday)
  • Final Exam: to be completed by July 16, 2007

Marking Scheme: Assignments 60%, Final Exam 40%

Course Notes

These course notes are password protected. You will need to register in the course and contact the course assistant to receive the password.

Note: There may be some FONT problems with the PDF files.  I recommend printing the documents in smaller groups, e.g., 20-30 pages at a time. Please contact the course assistant if you experience any printing problems.

Problem Sets

  • Final Exam - Due date: July 16, 2007
  • Problem Set 2 - Due date: June 17, 2007 Solutions
    (Note: Modifications from the original assignment handed out in class are noted in this version.)
  • Problem Set 1 - Due date: May 27, 2007Solutions
    (Note: Modifications from the original assignment handed out in class are noted in this version.)

Additional Information

  • lcm.xls - In-class exercise for computing annual probability of failure using the Weibull lifetime distribution.
  • rbd.ppt - Powerpoint Presentation about Reliability Block Diagrams.
  • age-based.xls - In-class exercise for estimating the cost rate for age-based replacement policy using integration.
  • lifetime.xls - In-class exercise for estimating the parameters of lifetime distributions using Maximum Likelihood Method and SOLVER.
  • regression.xls - In-class exercise for regression analysis.
  • simulation.xls - In-class exercise for computing probability of failure through Monte Carlo simulation (press F9 to re-calculate the worksheet).
  • ppp.xls - The Link Data in-class exercise from Module 2. Contains two different worksheets (PF for probability of failure calculations, and PPP for probability paper plotting).
  • Some of the Excel functions used in Modules 1 and 2 and other useful functions include:
    AVERAGE, BINOMDIST, COMBIN, COUNT, COUNTIF, EXPONDIST, FREQUENCY, INTERCEPT, MAX, MIN, NORMDIST, NORMSDIST, NORMINV, NORMSINV, PERMUT, RAND, RSQ, SLOPE, STDEV, TDIST, TINV, VAR
    (see the Excel help file for more information about these and other functions).
  • For Excel tips & tricks go to: http://www.exceltip.com

References

The main reference for the course will be our course notes on Engineering Risk and Reliability. Additional references for the course are as follows:

  • Any Probability and Statistics textbook used in an engineering program (typically at second year level).
  • Ang, A.H-S. and W.H. Tang. 1975. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Volume I - Basic Principles. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
  • Ang, A.H-S. and W.H. Tang. 1984. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Volume II - Decision, Risk, and Reliability. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
  • Benjamin, J.R. and C.A. Cornell. 1970. Probability, Statistics, and Decision for Civil Engineers. McGraw-Hill, New York.
  • Fullwood, R.R. and R.E. Hall. 1988. Probabilistic Risk Assessment in the Nuclear Power Industry: Fundamentals & Applications. Pergamon Press, Oxford.
  • McCormick, N.J. 1981. Reliability and Risk Analysis: Methods and Nuclear Power Applications. Academic Press, New York.
  • Melchers, R.E. 1999. Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction (2nd ed.). John Wiley & Sons, Chichester.

 

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